Thursday, March 29, 2007

'Rage' over Labour and Wages

A key employee, who's a few years younger than me, is quite the character. He came bursting into the office all in a huff after lunch saying he would never eat at KFC or McDonald's again . This over something about pay. As an aside, it is a source of constant amusement and sometimes frustration since he gets into these moods every once in a while - full of indignation over foreigners hurting poor Chinese people. I just tend to roll my eyes.

This is what he was talking about. I think Imagethief does a fantastic job of illustrating how stupid both McDonald's and KFC come across even though their position may ultimately turn out to be perfectly valid. Apparently both KFC and McDonald's are being accused of underpaying their student workers - and not by much, but you wouldn't really realize that by the coverage.

As someone who doesn't in general think that it makes sense to have a minimum wage in the first place, I suppose context is required to see the world through my employee's sometimes highly hypocritical eyes. I mean compared to other local companies out there, I pointed out that McDonald's and KFC probably do far better - but according to him Chinese people hurting other Chinese people is ok... but those dang foreigners, that's a whole different ball of wax. (He tells me from time to time that I'm also a Chinese person, but I tell him that I'm a Hong Kong person - inferring the latter isn't a subset of the former. This drives the nationalist in him nuts)

We had to have a going away dinner for a colleague today and after that outburst, as we were deciding where we should go, I suggested that we go to McDonald's with as serious a face as I could muster and he just glared at me.

During more serious moments I might otherwise consider what implications nationalism for the relatively educated masses will have on the future of China - particularly for Hong Kong, Taiwan but also Japan and North Korea. This is after a guy who took part on street protests over Japan last year. Then again, it's far too late in the evening to do that now.

I wonder how much of a real impact this recent press coverage has had although it's been quite clearly well publicized here in Guangzhou. I will ponder just that impact while I chomp on a Sausage and Egg McMuffin tomorrow morning for breakfast.

Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Why the French and Chinese Goverments get along so well?

In a conversation with a local employee not so long ago, we came to discuss how he liked France because they had been apparently so helpful to China. But while France riots away (H/T Instapundit), here's an alternate theory.

Tuesday, March 27, 2007

An Answer to my Prayers... Autoproxy for Blogspot

Just as I was starting to whine.... In case anyone can't live without their favorite blogspot blogs (no, I really can't), check out this post. One little addendum, is that for Mozilla 1.50, the entry for where you put where to find the proxy file is as follows:

Tools --> Options --> Connection Settings

The downside is that I really don't have a good excuse anymore not to post. Now if only I can figure out what to do about my email. I use Yahoo business mail because I like the filter (the amount of junkmail that I potentially get in the course of a day borders on horrific).

A small upside to this is that I've discovered RSS readers and I gotta say that they really do save a ton of time.

Grrr.... damn the creeping censors...

Ok now it's just starting to really annoy me. Over the past week, the censors have really started to creep out in terms of what they're not letting people in China read. They've started to selectively block a number of other blogs that aren't either Typepad or Blogspot. Blogspot is blocked entirely (though not blogger.com - hence my ability to post but not see what I've posted). Fortunately, I've discovered RSS feeds and readers :) (but if anyone knows a good proxy from China, please feel free to post in the comments that get mailed to me). The real annoying part though is that they're not doing it all at once but they're adding to the list of blocked sites - and ones that I read no less, pretty quickly.

Perhaps the worst part at the moment is that they've blocked my pop3 mail server for work. I've known about this issue in the past but it had been getting better (i.e. I was able to use it increasingly more before it got cut off in the past).

I may decide to keep posting anyway though my real excuse is that I've been swamped with work lately. I do however dread - absolutely dread - the day when they cut off my access to www.opinionjournal.com and www.wsj.com - it's not like I can read those on RSS.

I've been thinking about a few posts to make - e.g. the jaw dropping costs of social security taxes in China, crossing the road like a giggling school girl every morning, and an ode to McDonald's. I might just post or wait until I get back to Hong Kong next week. And in testament to the wild East, someone tried to stab the HR director to death with a knife at a company I know over an HR dispute - there's almost no comparison between the comfort level that I have here versus where our office was before in the outskirts of Shenzhen (ie. for the comfort of the parental units, I have some now - not that I ever really told them that I didn't have that before).

In the meantime, I would recommend Shenzhen Undercover - someone who has been posting more frequently and consistently than me but is a better writer (though he may be a bit left of center). He's posted a bit on what he seems to infer to be corruption but of all the stories I've heard, this one seems pretty light by comparison to some of the crazy things I've heard and seen.

Saturday, March 24, 2007

Technical Difficulties (or perhaps not)

The powers that be have blocked blogspot websites from within China at least over the past few days. I have no idea if this is a regular occurence or if this is back to a permanent thing. I think it's a reminder though that China has a long ways to go in understanding politics and free markets. I can post but I can' really see what I've posted. Granted I have also been quite busy lately and I hope to talk about that as well.

Saturday, March 17, 2007

Should Democracy or Economic Growth come first?

Catching up on reading blogs over the weekend, Greg Mankiw points to an interesting debate from WSJ's Econoblog that asks "Is Democracy the Best Setting for Strong Economic Growth?"

I tend to agree with Daron Acemoglu's concluding remarks:

Democracy doesn't strongly predict economic growth, at least not in the short run. [...] Sustained economic growth requires secure property rights and a level playing field for generating new technologies and entry by new firms. Democracy is the best guarantor for such sustained economic growth. Economic growth generates various vested interests, ranging from landed elites to businessmen in declining industries to privileged workers. These vested interests will try to block the introduction of new technologies and stop the entry of new firms. Democracy is not perfect, but with its more egalitarian distribution of political power, it will have greater resistance against vested interests than autocracy.
What democracy brings can be replicated through benevolent autocracies/dictatorships. Markets are more efficient for driving innovation because it's made up of millions of little experiments jockeying to best reap the rewards of what the future might bring in what Joseph Schumpeter has termed "creative destruction". Autocracies often create barriers to new experiments favoring dominent or entrenched firms. As a form of government then, democracy tends to force change promoting a better meritocracy.

China inevitably comes up in this conversation. While the current regime ought to be applauded for making communism more pliable than Marx ever considered, they're still only making up for lost time. China remains a mere fraction of the economic force they were only a few hundred years ago. As far as China has come, there still exists a huge question mark on what's happened to all those state sanctioned, underperforming and crony loans that will never be repaid - an amount that could top $1 trillion dollars. Now imagine the scenario if depositors (and Chinese people tend to be savers) lost confidence in their financial system (it's one of those reasons why I think it's rather foolish for outsiders to press for fast and dramatic currency regime reform given that it could spark a run on domestic institutions).

Democracy tends to promote the spread of new ideas. While only a few years ago, blogger seemed to be behind the great firewall of China, wikipedia continues to be. Only a year ago, I wasn't even able to access my (paid) yahoo account through pop3. When I called Yahoo! on this, they told me it was because these accounts were blocked from within China. That said, the fact I seem to be now able to access my account is promising but may not bode well in keeping a populace unhappy with political machinations of the day at bay.

Another reason that representative democracies tend to produce more sustained growth is that they provide greater stability with a political outlet for dissent (not always the case obviously) and political succession tends not to be a bloody mess.

This isn't to say that in democracies bad loans and loans to cronies can't happen (ref: 1980s S&L crisis) or that you can't have instability (ref: Iraq), it just tends to be better other forms of government.

For some observers, China is a powder keg waiting to ignite. It bears considering that the argument for market reforms wasn't so much that China's government wanted them but rather didn't have a choice. From what I've seen locally and from what others have observed, your average joe might not have extraterritorial ambitions, but they can be fiercely nationalistic and can be ruthless about dealing with internal matters - under which they consider both Taiwan and Tibet to be.

But back to the question of which comes first - democracy or economic growth. I personally don't question that the two are two sides of the same coin, but given the difficulties of achieving the former, it would seem to me that the latter tends to need to come first. Further, I also have little doubt that the latter builds pressure for the former. China is indeed in for interesting times if this proves to be the case.

Two Models to Grow From

While I think there's little doubt over China's phenomenal economic growth to date, a friend keeps reminding me to let him know "when the party's over" so he can consider repositioning his portfolio. China's recent successes isn't so much about what it's done right as it's arguably about their past failures.

China's just starting to catch up and it will take some time before it really is the economic behemoth everyone seems to already think it is. Despite all its growth, it bears recalling that China only surpassed the GDP of Italy, France and the UK at the end of 2005 despite each having only around 60 million people compared to China's 1 billion or so. And compare China's estimated $2.5 trillion GDP to the USA's $13.2 trillion. of As William Dodson writes:

I always bring to students' and participants' minds when I lecture that until the mid-1800s China represented 30% of the world's GDP for more than a thousand years. As one Chinese put it, "China just had a bad couple hundred years."
China has much to learn from two leading lights - particularly the one that they took over from the British - Hong Kong, and the other, Ireland. From John Fund in American.com:
Looking back, Milton Friedman said that in the 1990s he offered three words of advice to countries escaping communism: privatize, privatize, privatize. “But I was wrong,” he said shortly before his death. “That wasn’t enough. It turns out that the rule of law is probably more basic than privatization. Privatization is meaningless if you don’t have the rule of law.” Economist Robert Lawson, co-author of the Economic Freedom of the World annual report, published by Canada’s Fraser institute, concurs: “Giving people property rights and the ability to settle disputes peacefully and fairly—that is the number-one thing that matters.”

Lawson notes that the two top countries on his economic freedom index are Hong Kong and Singapore. Neither is particularly democratic, but both once belonged to Britain and adhered to that nation’s common-law traditions, built from bottom-up practical experience over centuries.
Next they should consider Ireland's successes despite being previously an economic basket case they've led old Europe in growth. From Cato's Chris Edwards in the National Review:
Irish government spending fell from more than 50 percent of GDP in the 1980s to 34 percent by 2005. For Europe that is a triumph of restraint, given that the average size of government across 25 EU countries today is 47 percent of GDP.

And Ireland has steadily reduced its tax rates. The top individual income tax rate was cut from 65 percent in 1985 to 42 percent today. The capital-gains tax rate was cut from 40 to 20 percent in 1999.

However, the key to Ireland’s success has been its excellent tax climate for business. In 1980, Ireland established a corporate tax rate for manufacturing of just ten percent. That low rate was subsequently extended to high-technology, financial services, and other industries. More recently, Ireland established a flat 12.5 percent tax rate on all corporations — one of the lowest rates in the world, and just one-third of the U.S. rate.

Low business tax rates have helped Ireland attract huge inflows of foreign investment. Given the country’s modest size, it boosts a high-tech industry second to none. Intel, Dell, and Microsoft are among the island’s biggest exporters. Ireland also hosts booming insurance, banking, money management, and pharmaceutical industries.
While I won't argue that either Hong Kong or Ireland are perfect (from what I've seen, Hong Kong still can go a ways), I think they illustrate just how far China can go - that while a crash is almost inevitable, continued structural reforms will mean that they emerge better and stronger than before.

The "Culture" Myth

I can't say that I've ever been a fan of the idea that culture drives behaviour. In China, as with everywhere else in the world, people respond to incentives. As with work in Uganda, I've been suspicious of the argument that people there value family more, any more than relationships are so much more important here in China or anywhere else for that matter.

Beyond the (allegedly) bonding effects of offering free flowing booze and sex and the idea that by making a buyer/client your friend they'll be more inclined to buy from you, relationship building here I think takes on particular importance. It's the simple theory that you're less likely to be swindled by doing so and one just can't rely on such things as contract law or property law where such outlandish ideas (at least to communists) have only recently been codified/established. Yes, for communists in China, to be a capitalist is bizarrely glorious.

In some ways it seems stunning that it's not overwhelming for those in the two generations before me who have seen so much change. To hear what my parents went through, and their parents in turn, seems entirely foreign compared to the relatively stable existence in the West. From the cultural revolution and daughters forced to denounce their parents to avoid savage beatings (it's surreal to hear this stuff first hand) to my grandmother smuggling food into the country side in the dead of night to feed her nieces and nephews seems a world away from the rapid development and what might have only a few decades ago been denounced as the 'Western decadence', short term and seemingly money seeking China of today.

With a seemingly unenforceable legal system, a rapid level of development and so much money sloshing around, it's not surprising that there's also been so much temptation from many who would otherwise be farmers who come to cities with next to nothing in search of money. In the few years that I've worked here, I've seen any number of swindles that it's truly nerve racking and something I have to be cognizant of and concerned about. I think outsiders deal with it in different ways, I know of those who now don't bother trusting their China staff anymore treating them like children and taking away nearly all responsibility - and these are even guys from HK. On the other hand, I get the sense that so many of these people have only been trained with management techniques from the 60s and 70s (I'm told that local managers and Taiwanese managers are even worse).

My goal is to build a different kind of company - it's important for my staff to see working as more than just a paycheck. It's a bit ironic and perhaps hypocritical that I don't see culture as a good excuse for not getting things done but that I intend to use it as an enabler and a tool for self-enforcement in my own company. I know there are those out there who see this as hopelessly idealistic and I probably am, but I've decided that I want to at least try.

Wednesday, March 14, 2007

Returning soon...

Blogging is going to be light for the next few days (as it has been for the past few). I am kind of relocating to Guangzhou for a few months as I work to change the way we work and the way our organization thinks. As noted in a previous email, it's going to be an interesting challenge (that's supposed to be some Chinese curse incidentally - 'may you live in interesting times').

My company is going through a number of changes, most of them preparing for the growth that we're expecting - and compounding the difficulties in any growing organization is a significant language barrier (I don't speak mandarin and most of them don't speak cantonese or english). I have to get up to speed and I have to do it quickly and in the midst of all of this we are adding a new accounting/ERP system and all the fun that comes with that.

This could actually be a new direction for this blog but I need to consider what I want/can talk about. My ultimate goal is to change the DNA of our company. It may seem excessively naive of me particularly as a bit of an outsider in China, and to that end it can get a little irritating when people dismiss your ideas as an outsider but from what I've found, it's just a matter of patience. Though I may not have much of that, I'd like to think that I make up for it in persistance.

I'd like to do in China what is already challenging for some in North America - having those who work with me feel that it's their company as well, optimizing around everyone's strengths, improving revenue and profitability metrics per team member and sharing in that wealth, and improving transparent communication and improving on trust. I'd like to document some of where I hope to head (and why), my successes and failures in the hopes that it may be useful for readers and myself later on.

Thursday, March 08, 2007

A Quiet Genocide

What is happening in Zimbabwe is a failure of international diplomacy. It defies reason that African leaders have traditionally tried to speak as a block, defending each others' shortcomings when these shortcomings include brutal murders and oppression. These leaders become complicit in each others' misdeeds and should answer for them. With all the time spent on AIDS and malaria, I wonder sometimes if the leading killer of the people of Africa isn't corrupt and genocidal governments.

I do wonder how those who support Chavez reconcile his support for Mugabe. Here's an article from The New Republic that requires a subscription, but it's worth reading the whole thing:

It all began with Mugabe's land seizures in 2000, in which he booted white farmers from the property they owned and replaced them with political hacks who have no interest in agriculture. The results were disastrous. Zimbabwe annually requires 1.8 million metric tons of maize. Yet, in 2006, for instance, it faced an 850,000 metric ton deficit -- of which planned imports would cover just 60 percent, with only 28 percent of that delivered by December. The country also requires 400,000 tons of wheat annually, yet, last year, it produced only 218,000 tons by the government's count -- meaning the true total was likely far less. As early as 2002, the BBC was reporting that people in Matabeleland, the southern region of the country where the minority Ndebele tribe lives, were starving. That same year, on the eve of a massive drought, the Minister of Zimbabwean State Security said, "We would be better off with only six million people--with our own who support the liberation struggle. We don't want all these extra people." Today, according to the World Food Program, 38 percent of Zimbabweans are malnourished.
Hat Tip: Instapundit.

Wednesday, March 07, 2007

Peak Oil Questioned...

Via Instapundit - Tim Blair quoting the New York Times:

There is still a minority view, held largely by a small band of retired petroleum geologists and some members of Congress, that oil production has peaked, but the theory has been fading.
It's good news though perhaps not so much for the neo-Malthusians who have one less argument with which to attempt shaming us with. The article points to new technology and reserves that were previously too expensive to reach.

Tuesday, March 06, 2007

The Politics of Alternative Energy

An interesting article from Arnold Kling at TCS Daily on the hot air generated from the competition for energy subsidies:

The competition for politically-driven profits is known as rent-seeking. The end result of rent-seeking is that the gains to private firms from government subsidies are dissipated through competition. In the end, only lobbyists and corrupt government officials benefit. The politics of global warming and the alleged oil/terrorism link are creating the conditions for an orgy of rent-seeking relative to energy.

Chances are, lobbyists will use up more energy than is produced by alternative energy subsidies. As for carbon dioxide emissions, cap-and-trade and energy subsidies certainly will increase the amount of jets flown by corporate executives to plead with politicians in Washington, Eurocrats in Brussels, and United Nations officials in New York. The net result is that the concentration of greenhouse gases probably will be higher, not lower.
You may want to read the whole thing.

Do Trade Deficits Matter?

I've seen two interesting posts this weekend on the trade deficit. One from Club for Growth and the other from Greg Mankiw.

From Club for Growth that quotes from Adam Smith:

Nothing, however, can be more absurd than this whole doctrine of the balance of trade, upon which, not only these restraints, but almost all the other regulations of commerce are founded. When two places trade with one another, this doctrine supposes that, if the balance be even, neither of them either loses or gains; but if it leans in any degree to one side, that one of them loses, and the other gains in proportion to its declension from the exact equilibrium. Both suppositions are false. A trade which is forced by means of bounties and monopolies, may be, and commonly is disadvantageous to the country in whose favor it is meant to be established...But that trade which, without force or constraint, is naturally and regularly carried on between any two places, is always advantageous, though not always equally so, to both.
From Greg Mankiw quoting CEA Chair Eddie Lazear:
On the trade deficit: The reason for the trade deficit ... is primarily, to my mind, the capital account surplus. It's not the trade deficit per se. It's that people want to invest in the United States. ... I think of that as a good thing.
As a matter of obvious disclosure this is an issue that has a direct impact on my business. It's also an issue that I knew full well getting into this business that I brushed off as something that has more to do with politics than economics. As Adam Smith pointed out, when a trade takes place, when you buy from me or when I buy from you, we both win. By buying a product or service, I'm saying that it's worth equal to, or more than the money I paid for it.

In my business, many of the products that we bring over are components and subassemblies - basically stuff to use stuff. The wrinkle is that much of these products in turn get exported around the world - another words, the imports allow our clients to be competitive on the global markets. But consider the ridiculousness of it, quoting from a 2004 WSJ article, one blog points out:
Apple's profit margin on iPods could run above 40%, based on production cost data from Wedbush Morgan Securities, whereas Kessler estimates the China-side profit to be in single digits, quite possibly below 5%.
So consider that when the politicians complain about the trade deficit with China. Remember the remarkably low unemployment in the US and Canada, and the rising incomes in both. It's not the trade deficit that matters, it's the income that does.

Sunday, March 04, 2007

Land Reform the Silver Bullet for Iraq?

Using markets to defeat terrorism. How novel, and yet, not so much. Austin Bay follows up on his own blog on using land reform and registration of property rights in providing the average citizen the incentive to make the government work:

In the 1990s, Schafer noted, Peru turned the “land reform” tables on the Communists. Property right reform helped defeat Peru’s “Maoist” Shining Path guerrilla movement.

“The Third World is not populated by proletariats, it’s populated by entrepreneurs– successful small business people,” Schafer said. (And that is what I’ve seen in the time I’ve spent in developing nations.) He added: “If you are someone who is surviving and raising a family by taking a bunch of bananas from out the city and bringing it in (to sell) you are an entrepreneur. You understand business —by low sell high And if you come to them and say you want to extend credit to them they understand that.”

In Schafer’s view, property right reform gives Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s government a very powerful political weapon, one that has war-winning potential.

Schafer supplied some fascinating evidence. According to Schafer, less than five percent of Iraq’s cultivatable agricultural land is “freehold” (owned with clear title). 95 percent of the cultivatable land in Iraq is therefore “dead” (illiquid) and cannot be used as security for a bank loan. “Iraqi farmers who lack clear title can’t get (bank) loans,” Schaefer said. That limits economic creativity, particularly in a population demonstrably successful at small business operations. Schafer believes that 95 percent of family homes in Iraq also lack clear, secure title.

“Prime Minister Maliki needs to go on television,” Schaefer advised, “and say “Citizens of Iraq, 95 percent of the property in this country is not legally in your name. You don’t have title to your own land or your own houses. We’re going to change that right now.””
I would suggest that you read the whole thing. If only more governments in Africa and the developing world would take that advice.

Saturday, March 03, 2007

The Dark Continent is literally the Dark Continent

Mark Perry from the University of Michigan notes a photo of Africa taken by NASA satellites August 21, 2001 at night under the heading: "What Does Economic Freedom Look Like at Night?":

Continues Perry: "According to the 2007 Heritage Foundation's Economic Freedom of the World in Five Regions, the economic freedom of Sub-Saharan Africa is the lowest in the world, and the economic freedom of Europe is the second highest in the world, just slightly behind the Americas." Hat tip goes to Club for Growth's Andrew Roth who notes "Someone smart once said that the only way to make a nation prosperous is to make the people prosperous. That's not happening in Africa." The people of Africa deserve better and ought to expect more of their politicians.

It's pretty encouraging with the development and rising prominence of the Heritage Foundation's Economic Freedom Index, Transparency International's multiple indices and following behind, the World Bank's Doing Business index, adding pressure to the acceptance of the idea that poverty isn't caused by the lack of resources, but rather a symptom of poor governance.

Friday, March 02, 2007

Property Rights, an Oil Trust & Iraq

From Austin Bay at TCS Daily:

The Iraqi government should consider two other economic reforms.

A logical follow-on is the establishment of an Iraqi "oil trust" program, similar to the one implemented by the state of Alaska where every qualified citizen gets a share of state oil revenues. An oil trust would put several hundred dollars a year into the pockets of every adult Iraqi -- that serves as an instant economic "fire-starter." The oil trust immediately invests everyone in the economic success of Iraq's new democratic government.

Clarifying and affirming individual property rights is another important reform. Peruvian economist Hernando De Soto's "Mystery of Capital" (published in 2000) argued that Egypt's poor have around $240 billion in "dead capital," most of it tied up in property that they cannot properly mortgage. De Soto said that individual property rights and a legal system that protected contracts would instantly energize Egypt's sclerotic economy.
These ideas are pretty exciting and something that I think more countries in places like Africa should enact - as more often than not, resources become more of a curse than a blessing (be they diamonds or oil). Those who know me know that I've been generally supportive of the War in Iraq. I've been somewhat puzzled by those who would have preferred stability and a false peace when it led to September 11th.

Iraq represents a new departure for the middle east and its economy represents quite a bright spot. To cut and run now would be disastrous sending the message to muslim extremists that they've won. In today's rabidly partisan climate when Americans tire of the attrition in Iraq and much of the rest of the world envies American power, I worry that Democrats and their would be international allies seek a political victory at a cost none of us can ultimately afford. It is encouraging however that the average American still wants to win in Iraq. In an Alison-in-Wonderland world, it feels like Americans are again left with the responsibility of defending the world when much of the world wishes they would fail.

Thursday, March 01, 2007

Where to go from here...

It's probably a bit early to be at a crossroads for this blog since I've only really been blogging for 2 months now but I still haven't told many people about it. I'm trying to get better at writing, I haven't really had the inclination to do as much independent stock research but at the same time, I'm not quite sure this eclectic mix of commentary/rants is the best way to develop my blog.

To date, most of my comments are reactionary and largely impersonal - responding or critiquing various news articles and editorials that pop up. I think I've got a few interesting bits that I can write about so maybe now's a good time to introduce a bit more about myself particularly since I'm at a crossroads - terming it as being the beginning of a new adventure in my career might be more apt. I have a business degree from Wilfrid Laurier University, I call Waterloo, Ontario home but I've worked as an investment banker in NYC and as an intern in auditing locally, but also for a period at a microfinance institution in Uganda so it's been a bit of an eclectic mix.

I'm in the middle of buying out my business partners in a company called Riverstone Manufacturing (you can see the link on the left hand side). We help firms manage production of components and subassemblies overseas. Our offices in HK are going to stay the same at least for a little bit while our offices in China are moving to Guangzhou and come March 12th I'll be joining them for up to 3 months to start.

Given that this isn't an anonymous blog, there are a number of issues that I can obviously not go into detail about since some day, someone - clients, friends and possibly, would be dates (dare to dream?), will search my name and my company name and find this blog. On the other hand, I'm pretty excited and hope to share some details with those who are interested in my journey to come.

The S&P 500 Index turns 50

From Jeremy J. Siegel and Jeremy Schwartz in the Wall Street Journal (Subscription required, or use Congoo):

From its inception on March 1, 1957, through the end of last year, the average annual return of the S&P 500 Index, which today comprises almost 80% of the value of all U.S. stocks, has been 10.83%, a return that most active equity managers have found very difficult to match. The changing composition of the index also mirrors larger changes in the economic landscape. Because of mergers, bankruptcies and other corporate changes, almost 1,000 new companies have been added to the index, as others were dropped, since its inception.

In 1957 the technology, health-care, and financial sectors, which today comprise almost one-half the index's value, made up a mere 6% of the index. The financial sector was particularly small in the 1950s and 1960s since commercial and investment banks, as well as brokerage houses, were not included in the S&P 500 until the 1970s.
I think there are two interesting points here. The first is that if you accept that the S&P 500 represent the largest and strongest basket of companies in the US (if not the world), the level of change in that basket is amazing. Its growth represents the present value of the innovation they have developed.

The second, is for those cynics out there who claim free markets just make the rich richer, and big companies just get bigger. Think of that, in the last 50 years, the S&P 500 has turned over twice - and where some industries have slowed down and petered out while others have grown - with many of the largest firms either in their infancy or even non-existent 50 years ago. The reason markets have been so successful where central planners have failed, is that the future is unknown.

The market is a collection of millions of different experiments optimizing to profitability - i.e. society's wants, needs and desires. These simultaneous experiments are able to respond far more efficiently than government's heavy (and slow) hand. The more efficient the market, the better the allocation of capital allowing the most successful experiments to grow (and be copied). As a corollary, markets will always be better able at responding to society's challenges so long as the future is unknown.

US Treasury Secretary Paulson Defends Trade

I'm shamelessly copying this from Greg Mankiw's site. Economic liberty has too few quotable/charismatic defenders (but that could just as well be that it's not deemed interesting enough to make the news). What we do hear is the protectionists like Lou Dobbs and it's easier for a politician to cave into empathy for low paying jobs, doing what they think feels right, instead of doing what they likely know is right.

Anyway, here's US Treasury Secretary Paulson:

trade helps Americans provide for their families. When special interests seek protection in the name of low-wage workers, we should acknowledge that limitations on imports do not benefit the vast majority of Americans. They deny people the freedom to choose from a broader array of goods and services, and impose a cruel tax on people who rely on low prices to stretch their family budgets. The cost of protectionism falls most heavily on those who are least able to afford it – the poor and the elderly.

Wednesday, February 28, 2007

Capitalism as an Ideal

Timothy Ash, a professor of European studies at Oxford, in the Globe and Mail makes the comment:

What is the elephant in all our rooms? It is the global triumph of capitalism.
Maybe in his room - most of us don't really care or don't even notice. And that's how markets have developed and thrived; not explicitly or intentionally, but because governments loosened their collective grips after experiencing stagnation and failure. This isn't a condition that governments have sought, but have simply happened. For those of us who do care, to accept his view is dangerous.

One can almost sense Ash's level of futility and desperation in making such an admission, except for the fact he's wrong. Ash begins by attempting to define capitalism:

Is what Russian or Chinese state-owned firms do really capitalism? Isn't private ownership the essence of capitalism? One of America's leading academic experts on capitalism, Edmund Phelps of Columbia University, has an even more restrictive definition. For him, much of what continental Europe has, with its multiple stakeholders, is actually corporatism. Capitalism, he says, is “an economic system in which private capital is relatively free to innovate and invest without permissions from the state and green lights from communities and regions, from workers, and other so-called social partners.” In which case, most of the world is not capitalist. I find this much too restrictive.

Hmmm, let's clarify. Let's go to an expert in "capitalism", ask them to define it and then when we don't like the definition, make one up? And make it up in order to suit his argument, he does:

Surely what Europe has is multiple varieties of capitalism, from more liberal market economies such as Britain and Ireland to more co-ordinated stakeholder economies such as Germany and Austria. In Russia and China, there's a spectrum from state to private ownership. Other considerations than maximizing profit play a larger part in the decision-making of state-controlled companies, but they, too, operate as players in national and international markets, and increasingly they also speak the language of global capitalism. Granted, China's “Leninist capitalism” is a very big borderline case, but the crab-like movement of its companies toward what we would recognize as more rather than less capitalist behaviour is far clearer than any movement of its state toward democracy.

It's not difficult to find those like Ash who long for an alternative (or maybe it's just a charm of being in Canada). The average German apparently even believes that it's better to inherit the wealth you have rather than earn it! They find capitalism far too disruptive, they associate it with greed, manipulation, and consumption and even find it impolite. They're willing to use Cuba as an example that socialism can work pointing to its healthcare system despite American oppression/hegemony keeping it impoverished, (nevermind that Taiwan, an island embargoed by a far more hostile neighbour, has thrived).

But basically what it comes down to for those like Ash, is that it's possible for socialism and communism to have an "ideal" but capitalism must be flawed at its core. With the growth and prominence of the environmental movement, they can now point to another reason to reign in the "excesses" of capitalism. Where apparently Marx had it wrong on why capitalism would fail, Ash apparently knows better:
They are not precisely the famous “contradictions” Marx identified, but they may be even bigger. For a start, the history of capitalism over the past 100 years hardly supports the view that it is an automatically self-correcting system. As George Soros (who should know) points out, global markets are now more than ever constantly out of equilibrium — and teetering on the edge of a larger disequilibrium. Again and again, it has needed the visible hands of political, fiscal and legal correction to complement the invisible hand of the market. The bigger it gets, the harder it can fall.
This is a favorite strawman of the anti-capitalists: to them, anarchy is apparently the ideal state for free markets, nevermind that free markets require rule of law and property rights as noted by everyone from Milton Friedman to Adam Smith. Governments are needed to protect us from each other - the problem is when governments attempt to protect us from ourselves or blur the line between the two. What is perhaps a bit galling is that Ash prefers we forget many of these "disequilibriums" are caused by brutish (though often unintentional consequences of) government interventions. Ash goes on:

Then there is inequality. One feature of globalized capitalism seems to be that it rewards its high performers disproportionately, not just in London but also in Shanghai, Moscow and Mumbai. What will be the political effects of having a small group of super-rich people in countries where the majority are still super-poor? In more developed economies, such as in Britain and North America, a reasonably well-off middle class, with a slowly improving personal standard of living, may be less bothered by a small group of the super-rich — whose antics also provide them with a regular diet of tabloid-style entertainment. But if a lot of middle-class people begin to feel they are personally losing out to the same process of globalization that is making those few fund managers stinking rich, while at the same time outsourcing middle-class jobs to India, then you may have a backlash.

This seems more to do with wishful thinking. To Ash, apparently the fact that wealth is accumulated and stolen by oligarchies and corrupt governments who don't care to enforce rule of law can all be blamed on free markets. Further, Ash implicitly makes the equivalence of the "super-rich" in developed countries with those in developing countries - as if self made billionaires like Rupert Murdoch and Bill Gates can be compared at the same level as oil sheikhs. To those like Ash it seems that wealth can only be distributed rather than made and earned. Wealth to them is a "fixed pie", not one that grows with innovation. I often wonder how they reconcile their reality with the continual growth in per capita GDP. Economics mumbo jumbo perhaps?

Above all, though, there is the inescapable dilemma that this planet cannot sustain six and a half billion people living like today's middle-class consumers in the rich north. In a few decades, we would use up fossil fuels that took 400 million years to accrete — and change the earth's climate as a result. Sustainability may be a boring word, but it is the biggest single challenge to global capitalism today. However ingenious modern capitalists are in finding alternative technologies — and they will be very ingenious — somewhere down the line, this will mean richer consumers settling for less rather than ever more.

Finally, it's the argument most in vogue by redistributionists - using the environment - claiming that we don't have enough resources. They use words like "ecological footprint" and "inevitable" to scare us into compliance. But these Malthusian arguments aren't particularly new but as they have been for the pasts 300 years, they are still wrong. Ash however does acknowledge that technologies have been the solution to resource constraints but he treats these solutions as mere tricks by "ingeniuous modern capitalists". The genius of free markets is that scarcity is signalled to ingenious modern (and even stodgy) capitalists through higher prices and therefore greater incentives to develop more efficient ways to use resources and develop alternatives. The evidence is quite clear - commodity prices fall over time.

There's an elegant truth to the markets. With prices having consistently fallen in the long run, it suggests resources are becoming more abundant rather than scarce. What makes this fall even more remarkable is increased population and increased wealth allowing more people to afford what were luxuries mere decades ago. There are however those who have been willing to bet that this wouldn't be the case, putting their money where their mouths have been.

But back to why accepting Ash's belief that capitalism has "won" is dangerous. Consider a doomsday scenario of what might happen when China ultimately falters. Who to blame? I'll bet that those like Ash won't be pointing fingers at government policy (and the extreme levels of bad bank debt). According to James Waterton:
I fear a worldwide economic slump prompted by the collapse of China and its supposedly free market will provoke a popular backlash against globalisation and the liberal market reforms carried out in the 80s in the most successful economies of the West. Capitalism and liberalism will be blamed if people create a nexus between China's collapse, its market reforms and its intertwining with the greater world economy. There is no shortage of people who will quickly jump to the fallacious conclusion that the free market sunk China - those who protested in Hong Kong and other places would grab plenty of (misguided) ammunition from such a catastrophic event. Ask any one of those economic curmudgeons about post communist Russia's economy, and I will bet you penny to a pound that their standard response would be "capitalism failed Russia". This is about as sensible as saying that modesty failed Paris Hilton, for anyone who knows anything about post-Soviet "free market reforms" will know that they were in fact nothing of the sort. This type of thinking could very well gain traction because it makes sense prima facie. Policy reversals may follow and suddenly we're staring down the barrel of a neo-Keynesian revolution. Consider what the average person knows about China's economy. We're all told about China's free market reforms and its burgeoning capitalist class in the mainstream media - we're not told about the Chinese government's meddling in the economy and its mandating of compulsory totalitarian-style imposts on big private companies like internal "political cells", its retention of control over huge swathes of industry, its equity market (there is currently a ban on IPOs on Mainland bourses) which is stuffed with companies who are controlled by local governments and even the military, rather than shareholder, the board and a CEO. Most importantly, we're not told about the largely intractable problems with China's banking sector. Most people truly think China operates under a free market economic system. If the dog's breakfast that is China Inc fails with all the accompanying pain and fallout, there's a real danger that free market liberalism will be made the scapegoat internationally.
Let's not forget the words of a Frenchman:

"When goods do not cross borders, soldiers will." - Bastiat

Some argue quite convincingly that this led to World War I.

Sunday, February 25, 2007

The Worst Job in America

I thoroughly enjoyed Steven Levitt's Freakonomics - and in this Youtube, he talks about his research project into the economics of a drug gang which, for its lowly members was "the worst job in America". (R-Rated: Language). Hat Tip: Simon @ Classical Values.

Friday, February 23, 2007

Are CEOs worth it?

Here's an interesting position (I seem to like contrarian and unpopular positions for some reason); Jerry Taylor and Jagadeesh Gokhale from Cato make the argument that CEOs may be underpaid:

A 1997 study by Harvard economists Brian Hall and Jeffrey Leibman examined 15 years worth of data relating to CEO pay and corporate performance. Messrs. Hall and Leibman found that, for 1994, every additional dollar given to a CEO translated into an average return of $3.90 for the company. While subsequent studies have highlighted the ambiguities associated with studies like this, the evolution of CEO compensation arrangements strongly suggests that corporate boards are increasing compensation packages for a reason -- to improve performance.
[...] The inference from Mr. Bush's statement -- that rising CEO pay is fueling income inequality -- thus begs the question about whether rising CEO pay is improving corporate performance. If it is, then workers might well be better off if CEOs were paid even more. And if it isn't, then the market will either punish firms that are overpaying for executive talent, or shareholders would lose. To us, the only excess here is the attention politicians are "paying" to the issue.
I tend to agree - the onus of responsibility of ensuring that the investment in strong executive talent is the responsibility of shareholders, who delegate responsibility through directors, who in turn have a fiduciary responsibility for representing their interest. If I recall this whole mess with options is the direct result of Congress tinkering with what they deem fair in executive pay.

'The Real Crisis in Public Education'

More on Steve Jobs' speech from the Wall Street Journal:

The real crisis in public education, he noted, has nothing to do with the amount of technology in the classroom. It's the fact that union work rules prevent principals from firing the bad teachers and rewarding the good ones. "Here's the problem," said Mr. Jobs, using a business analogy: "What kind of person could you get to run a small business if you told them, when they came in, they couldn't get rid of people they thought weren't any good in the first place? Or they couldn't pay people three times as much when they got three times as much work done?"

Thursday, February 22, 2007

Corporate Taxes and What's "Fair"

TCS Daily makes the argument that fair corporate taxes is no corporate taxes. As a small business owner, I'm all for it, though I'm not sure how practical or politically feasible that is (ie it isn't). But it raises an interesting point since double taxation has always been one of those bizarre things that governments do. Practically speaking though I wonder how you deal with people who use businesses to pay their personal expenses? I suppose you're not allowed to do that anyway. Or even the accumulation of assets within corporations so it isn't taxed?

The Effect of Unions on Productivity

In general, I can't say that I am a fan of unions. I believe they served a purpose that is now largely unnecessary, at least in the developed world. Economic choice has reinforced this with union membership dropping steadily. The Economist though has a thoughtful article that references Stephen Bainbridge on the subject who argues that rather than being negative, the net result on productivity of unions may be closer to zero. Hat Tip: Instapundit.

Nobelist Polanyi on Innovation

In a followup to a Globe and Mail article last week, Nobelist John Polanyi makes the argument that what's stopping innovation isn't either the lack of engineers/scientists as advocated by Bill Gates, or even business people as argued by Roger Martin and James Milway. Polanyi argues that, in fact, it's over/poor management:

The damage is done when the manager takes ownership of the pig before whisking it off to the market. The health of the pig, we are told, is to be assured by rules of husbandry. Research, in order to qualify for support, should abide by a multitude of rules.
Ignoring for a moment that the case as made by Martin & Milway wasn't that there wasn't adequate management at the government level, Polanyi errs by ignoring where innovation comes from. What started it all, was Bill Gates' assertion that America's prosperity was dependent on innovation. Where he goes wrong is in thinking that this innovation must come from scientists and engineers, Martin and Milway go wrong thinking that it's the business grads and Polanyi goes wrong thinking that innovation must happen at universities - or even driven by universities.

There's little doubt that innovation drives prosperity. It's easy to see that a given product is worth more than the sum of its parts, and the difference, after taking into account the cost of capital is almost always the direct result of innovation. But innovation isn't always as radical as the development of the lightbulb, the microchip or hopefully, eventually, fusion. The vast amount of innovation is incremental - or evolutionary, as pointed out in a study in 2000, for Duke Law Professor Lewis Branscomb by Booze, Allen, Hamilton. It's adding a new menu item at McDonald's, or making cars in colors other than black.

In fact, Booz Allen makes the observation that:
Almost all GDP growth is due to evolutionary growth of existing markets, services, and production processes. $200 billion in R&D was funded by private industry. Of this only about $16 billion funded R&D for radical innovators.
From this innovation was economic activity (gross profitability for an economy) of nearly 10 trillion dollars. So to recap: prosperity is the result of profitability measured by GDP (as an aggregate) which in turn is the direct result of largely incremental innovations. Understanding the problem is probably the first step to building a solution. As in the case of labor markets, in promoting innovation in private industry, governments need to learn less is probably more.

Barack Obama isn't Black?

Racism apparently isn't just for white people despite what those at the UN might think. Here's a hilarious interview from the Colbert Report (despite being partisan Democrats, Colbert and Stewart can be quite funny).

Life and Times of Milton Friedman

Read it here.

Wednesday, February 21, 2007

Setting Labor Free

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that "economies in the Nordic region are surging" (subscription required / Congoo):

From almost every angle, the economies of Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Finland look much stronger than those in the euro zone. In Sweden, double-digit growth in consumer sales last year helped to produce the country's best year of economic growth since the 1970s. Labor-market overhauls have helped push unemployment to near record lows in Denmark, Finland and Norway.

In Sweden, the new center-right government, which won power in September after 12 years of Social Democratic rule, has cut income taxes and employer fees and reduced unemployment benefits to increase both labor demand and supply. One result: Retail sales in Sweden jumped 10.9% in December from a year earlier.
Governments can do more by doing less. It's remarkable how long it can take for governments to realize that the only thing the've been protecting people from are jobs.

Heh... Slapdown of Robert Reich

Greg Mankiw points out the hypocrisy of Robert Reich on minimum wage and trade.

Solar at Half the Cost of Oil?

I have my doubts but I certainly hope so. According to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the Telegraph:

In a decade, the cost may have fallen so dramatically that solar cells could undercut oil, gas, coal and nuclear power by up to half. Technology is leaping ahead of a stale political debate about fossil fuels.
I have few doubts that something will ultimately substitute oil. Though statements like this strike me as premature:
Needless to say, electricity utilities are watching the solar revolution with horror.
Horrified all the way to the bank no doubt. I would suggest the days of high oil prices are limited. Commodity prices drop with time because of technological substitutes and improved extraction technologies but in the short run, however temporary prices remain high is anyone's guess.

Tuesday, February 20, 2007

More on the Limits of Microfinance

As most people know, I'm fairly enthusiastic about microfinance but I believe there are some significant limits to what it can do. This reinforces the idea that though they may be provided with the best of intentions subsidies and soft loans to microfinance are ultimately unhelpful to target recipients/clients. A recent study from Cato:

Microfinance—the provision of financial services such as small loans to the world’s poor—has grown in the past decade, extending billions of dollars in credit to tens of millions of people. A major aim of the microfinance movement is to provide funds for investment in microbusinesses, thus lifting people out of poverty and promoting economic growth.

Recent experience and the economic history of rich countries, however, suggest that those expectations are unrealistic. Most people, poor or otherwise, are not entrepreneurs, so there is little reason to think that mass credit would in general lead to viable business start-ups. Today as in the past, business start-ups in the advanced countries depend predominantly on savings and informal sources of credit; past forms of microcredit never played a role in small business development, and much microcredit is actually used for consumption rather than investment. In the history of today’s rich countries, moreover, economic growth occurred first, then came credit for the masses. That credit was and is predominantly for consumption rather than investment.

There is no reason to believe that the nature and sequence of growth and mass credit are fundamentally different for poor countries today than they were in the past. We should not expect microfinance to noticeably affect growth or successful business development.

Don't like inflation numbers? Make them up.

I could have also titled this why countries stay poor/get poorer. From the Wall Street Journal (this link needs subscription but according to Richard in the comments, you might be able to access the same editorial at http://news.congoo.com):

Just when you think world economic policy might be moving in a more sensible direction, along comes Latin America. This month's lesson in how not to create prosperity comes from Argentina, which has decided that the way to whip inflation is to throw out inconvenient statistics.

Recently the Peronist government of President Nestór Kirchner sacked an official at its National Statistics and Census Institute for refusing to agree to alter the "methodology" used to calculate inflation in January. Armed guards then escorted a political appointee to replace her.

Theory of Government

Funny but true. According to Jane Galt:

The post below also applies to behavioural economics, which the left seems to believe is a magical proof of the benevolence of government intervention, because after all, people are stupid, so they need the government to protect them from themselves. My take is a little subtler than that:

1) People are often stupid
2) Bureaucrats are the same stupid people, with bad incentives.

Interesting... Labor Law & "The Office"

This is for fans of the mockumentary The Office (US). I didn't watch this show for the longest time because I thought it would be a watered down version of the British one but I am finding it pretty funny. Here's an HR lawyer's blog who estimates Dunder Mifflin's litigation costs associated with what Michael does using broad examples from her practice. Pretty educational - perhaps more so for those who get the humor of the show.

Monday, February 19, 2007

Teachers Unions

I've had some pretty great teachers. I've also had some pretty miserable ones. With the (seemingly) increased militance of teachers unions making unreasonable demands/comparisons and from purely anecdotal evidence, I have been wondering if the latter has been flourishing more than the former. Is the economic power of the US (and Canada) in spite, rather than the result of our education system (and as a corollary, teachers and their unions)? Apparently Steve Jobs and Michael Dell (both on the same stage no less!) think so.

Saturday, February 17, 2007

When globalization isn't for you...

To Brink Lindsey, the biggest mistake that Thomas Friedman (author of The World is Flat and the Lexus and the Olive Tree) makes is in believing that globalization is inevitable and governments are powerless. Lindsey's book after all, is titled "Against the Dead Hand: The Uncertain Struggle for Global Capitalism". Countries apparently willingly check out of the global economy all the time.

Which brings us to Venezuela and Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe inflation reached an annual rate of 1281% in December according to New York Times. But here's their prescription, as quoted by Greg Mankiw:

The central bank’s latest response to these problems, announced this week, was to declare inflation illegal. From March 1 to June 30, anyone who raises prices or wages will be arrested and punished. Only a “firm social contract” to end corruption and restructure the economy will bring an end to the crisis, said the reserve bank governor, Gideon Gono.
Now comes Venezuela (hat tip Instapundit) where Daniel Drezner reports "things are beginning to fall apart". What is a bit galling, is that while their problems are entirely predictable (i.e. if you print money ad infinitum, its value goes down), their ideological allies agree with the view that their problems are caused by some American conspiracy.

Same thing with Cuba in that sense. I don't know how many people who have said the whole reason Cuba is an economic basket case is that the Americans have had them embargoed for all this time. I've even agreed to a certain extent, but PJ O'Rourke, does a good job of reminding us of another small island that's been embargoed by an economic giant and in spite of it all, has done quite well for itself - Taiwan.

Travel Blogging - Pet Peeves

I think this is a post that I'll keep adding to over time just to gripe about, and hopefully at some point, someone who can actually make a difference will pay attention.

Hotels

Plastic wrapped soap -
for the life of me I can't figure out why even five star hotels wrap their soaps in plastic. I instinctively reach to wet my hands before grabbing the soap - which is a problem when it is wrapped in slippery plastic and sometimes even double wrapped! Hotel Harbour Plaza Metropolis (HK) does this as does Novotel (Guangzhou).

Toilet paper dispensers that require gymnastics to reach - I was surprised the Novotel does this. You have to do a near 180 behind you if you're sitting on the throne in order to reach the toilet paper. It's a flippin' new hotel too. The dispenser sits immediately next to the flush chamber or whatever it's called.

Employees who care more about their own convenience than those of their customers - Admittedly I haven't seen this at any 0f the five star hotels I've stayed at but it's a costless thing that all employees in hospitality should know - i.e. hold the elevators for customers particularly when you're the only one in there and particularly when there's only one elevator and it's slow as heck.

Airplanes

Unexplained in-flight acrobatics - Sometimes turbulence causes you to drop a few feet out of nowhere - which I am told is not unusual, but it would help if the pilots came on to explain it to the frightened passengers afterwards. Plus side - unusually compliant passengers for the rest of the flight .

People who don't care about the people in front and behind their seats - I'm one of those people who don't think it's worth travelling business class in general. Hook me up with an aisle seat and an electrical plug (yes! they have those now in AC economy), and I'm pretty happy. But it's annoying when people in front of you are fully reclined, they get up and they slam themselves back on the seats - it's even more annoying when you're fully reclined sleeping and the person behind you struggles pulling themselves up using your seat as leverage.

Hotel Blogging - Novotel Guangzhou

An employee of mine has a membership at "elong" in China which is something like a travelzoo and gets pretty good deals for hotels across China. This five-star Novotel in Guangzhou was nice (and like the Guangzhou airport that it sits conveniently and immediately behind, it's quite oversized). At 588 RMB/night (about $75 USD/night), it was an introductory offer (opened Jan 15 apparently and the pool and a few restaurants on second floor weren't open yet).







Hotel Blogging - Home Inn (Guangzhou)

I'm sure there's more than one of these things in Guangzhou. I think it's aiming to be something like a Holiday Inn. I require very little from my hotel rooms - basic, clean, and good internet (I am told I have an addiction), are my requirements. So this is I think an encouraging development in China. It's actually a public company HMIN on the NASDAQ (expensive, but if it weren't, I would be a buyer so it's on my watch list). At 180 RMB a night (but my room was more expensive because it had a window and a larger bed), the internet was great. My theory about internet and hotel rooms is that sometimes it's the dumpier/more basic hotels that will have better internet because fewer of the lodgers will have laptops with which to use said internet.

Of course these places have tv's that don't have any english (whereas the Novotel even had HBO Asia along with the usual CNN International), and they don't have anyone who speaks a smidgen of english let alone cantonese, but it's nothing a cell phone call to someone who does can't solve.



If I may dwell on this for a moment though, places like this are a departure and quite encouraging for China which typically has much smaller lodging houses which are inconsistent at best for your average domestic traveller. With its bright colors, it's almost like they drew inspiration from somewhere like Ikea and it's developing into a good consumer brand (another thing most smaller lodging houses have no idea about). In Africa, I wouldn't stay in places where your average domestic traveller would stay because it wouldn't be either safe or clean.

Friday, February 16, 2007

Nukes, Nukes Everywhere...

Power is a problem for most of the factories I work with down south. During the summer when it's the worst, factories can be forced not to use any electricity off the grid for as many as 3-4 days a week. It's odd but now that I think about it I've seen very few nuclear power facilities down south. Flying about up north though they seem to pop up everywhere.

Now here's a new development that might be a difficult sell, at least over in North America:


Below is your standard set of nukes out in Changchun. It's kind of strange too, you start to notice that people build these residential units pretty close to the nukes (I even saw small older looking huts driving by the base of these nukes). Maybe they don't really care, or maybe these people who live there just don't know any better.

Flying like a Madman around Northern China

I thought I'd add some original content. I'm back in Canada now after an exhausting few weeks in China with the last leg of my journey travelling with a client criss-crossing Northern China. The one thing that is amazing is the level of construction that is going on everywhere. And we're not talking little developments.

It's quite similar to what I saw going on near in Southern China when I first started this job a few years ago - cranes everywhere, infrastructure developments anticipating future growth which meant massive highways which were near empty, and multimillion dollar if not multibillion dollar airports with few people in them. It was stunning when I first came to China 3-4 years ago - the downtown core of Shenzhen was being completely rebuilt - and not piecemeal as you might see in a "hot" city in North America, it was being done all at once.

Here are some pics from a few weeks ago. Personally I don't think the pictures do the scale of construction going on justice. These are in Tianjin, 1.5-2 hours south of Beijing. At first, my client thought that all the cranes in the distance were for a massive port. Now imagine this effect being multiplied all over the coast of China.






This last pic is also illustrative of the kind of development that seems to go on out in the country side. There's still a lot of flat country side but every so often you get this massive building in the middle of nowhere. It would be as if after driving out in the middle of Kansas after seeing miles and miles of farmland and then without warning you have this huge commercial building. One wonders how they deal with things like electricity and water or even more importantly sewage...

More from Phelps... on Wealth and Culture

As blogged earlier though perhaps not as selective in my quoting, there's an additional point that should have been emphasized in his editorial:

Lastly, there a strain of anti-commercialism. "A German would rather say he had inherited his fortune than say he made it himself," the economist Hans-Werner Sinn once remarked to me
As the Right Coast points out, it is extraordinary. Hat Tip, Instapundit.

What Not to Do....

As the bumper sticker goes: "what if your purposes in life is to serve as a warning to others?" Well there's Venezuela, held on a pedestal by some for his "defiance" to the US and able to do so awash in oil money. Hat Tip: Instapundit.

Thursday, February 15, 2007

Wall Street Journal Economics & Development Roundup

Lots of good stuff in the Wall Street Journal today on development and economics and also a bit on Africa (a subscription is highly recommended). Let's start with what's not behind their subscription services:

John Fund reviews "Radicals for Capitalism" by Brian Doherty (the publishers should have spent a bit more money on the cover page). Here's a quote: "But very few writers have devoted much attention to the role of libertarians, a more appealing and optimistic group of thinkers, political activists and ordinary citizens who believe that respect for the individual and the spontaneous order of market forces are the key to progress and social well-being."

Next comes an OECD report out on European Joblessness and the associated editorial:

Look at the welfare-besotted Nordics, in particular Denmark, which has recently found tough love. Its "flexisecurity" system combines generous jobless benefits, strong incentives to get new work fast and lenient hiring and firing rules. This encourages Danish employers to create jobs and pushes beneficiaries back into the work pool. The result: Unemployment fell to 4.8% in 2005 from 8% in 1994.

New governments in Italy and Germany and a soon-to-be new president in France have a chance to catch up with other developed economies on getting their citizens into jobs. The recipe isn't complicated: Reduce taxes to reduce wage costs, tighten rules on government benefits, loosen up employment protection laws.
Then there's Nobel Prize winner for Economics winner Edward C. Prescott arguing the merits of globalization, getting out of the way of successful industries while allowing old uncompetitive industries to die:
Of all the thankless jobs that economists set for themselves when it comes to educating people about economics, the notion that society is better off if some industries are allowed to wither, their workers lose their jobs, and investors lose their capital -- all in the name of the greater glory of globalization -- surely ranks near the top.
Finally, while I can't agree with the authors who say Doha is Africa's last best chance, they do make some good points that the collapse of the Doha round of trade talks would make African nations poorest for it. Here's the argument:
It would lead the United States and the European Union to negotiate more bilateral free-trade agreements with key countries, but not with sub-Saharan Africa and other poor countries, which offer few attractive markets for developed countries' manufactured goods and services. Africa, which has seen its share of world trade shrink in recent years, would fall even further behind.
This runs counter to those anti-trade idealists or self proclaimed advocates for the poor, however well intentioned who argue that no trade agreement is better than a flawed trade agreement.

The Role of Innovation

Hat tip to my friend Brett who pointed me to a Globe and Mail article where it's argued that Bill Gates is wrong:

Neither is there evidence that more scientists and engineers would enhance future prosperity. Across developed economies, there is no relationship between the graduation of scientists and engineers and economic growth. Among the Group of Seven industrialized nations, America ranks seventh in natural science and engineering undergraduate degrees per capita, yet leads in innovation and prosperity.
I'm doubtful that the real driver of economic growth is business education. In fact it's been argued the critique encompasses all of education. Off the top of my head, India's historical level of development comes to mind. It's only recently that it has seen significant growth much of it given its largescale economic reforms despite a highly educated workforce. Education like microfinance like many other interventions are catalysts - they do little to spark the incentives for entrepreneurship and development.

Wednesday, February 14, 2007

A bit on the freaky side...

Imagine being able to shuck a lobster - what's more, shucking it while it's still alive without losing any of the meat! This is what you get:


Personally I love lobster - I just don't like the work, but this is freaky even for me. Apparently you can now buy them like this at Whole Foods. Isn't technology great ? One of the best meals I've ever had was a tasting menu at Canoe in Toronto - one of the things I thought was a neat luxury at the time was an appetizer where you didn't have to peel the shell. I have to say the idea has its appeal... but in practice...

Monday, February 12, 2007

In Praise of Entrepreneurialism

From the Nobel Prize winning Edmund Phelps:

Where there is more entrepreneurial activity--and thus more innovation, as well as all the financial and managerial activity it leads to-- there are more jobs to fill, and those added jobs are relatively engaging and fulfilling.
Phelps explores why continental Europe has lagged the United States in economic growth. Interestingly he argues that culture and values may have as much a role as institutions.

Bringing Transparency to the Global Fund at the UN

They should make Tom Coburn President for all that he's done. "One doesn’t have to think of oil-for-food to know that if the UN is running your expense account, there could be problems." No, unfortunately, one does not. From the same article in American.com:

It is easy to admire the Global Fund for the good work that it has achieved. But its early successes may be forgotten if it becomes just another corrupt UN scheme. The Global Fund may not like it, but Senator Coburn’s transparency initiative may save its reputation along with the lives of millions.
What I'm not clear on is why our governments have been allowed to write blank cheques to organizations like the UN who seem at times better at press releases than real acts of good work without some requirement of accountability and/or transparency.

Thursday, February 08, 2007

"The curious career of Maurice Strong"

Maurice Strong is a Canadian with ties to the Liberal Party of Canada, and perhaps not so coincidentally to the UN. Locally, he also used to sit on the board at the "Center for International Governance Innovation", where quite coincidentally, Louise Frechette, deputy Secretary General under Kofi Annan was hired as a "Distinguised Fellow". Personally, it strikes me as odd that anyone who has held a substantive role at the UN be associated with "good governance" but I digress.

From Claudia Rosette:

Before the United Nations can save the planet, it needs to clean up its own house. And as scandal after scandal has unfolded over the past decade, from Oil for Food to procurement fraud to peacekeeper rape, the size of that job has become stunningly clear.

But any understanding of the real efforts that job entails should begin with a look at the long and murky career of Maurice Strong, the man who may have had the most to do with what the U.N. has become today, and still sparks controversy even after he claims to have cut his ties to the world organization.

From Oil for Food to the latest scandals involving U.N. funding in North Korea, Maurice Strong appears as a shadowy and often critically important figure.
I would strongly recommend you read the whole thing. It's stunning. Hat Tip: Instapundit.

The New Deal Revisited

According to Arnold Kling:

The New Deal gave the American people new faith in large, powerful central government. However, the results of the New Deal did not justify that faith in the 1930s, nor do the results of the welfare state justify such faith today.
Obviously I know nothing of the context of that time, but the premise that government can spend its way out of unemployment or structural economic issues seems to be somewhat erroneous (and has been repeatedly proven many times over since the Great Depression). Of course if you believe this then you also have to believe that the New Deal prolonged and/or worsened the Great Depression instead of its original intentions. But isn't that nearly always the case with top down government solutions?

Friday, February 02, 2007

What's wrong with Education?

A good case can be made that it's unions:

Who, on average, is better paid--public school teachers or architects? How about teachers or economists? You might be surprised to learn that public school teachers are better paid than these and many other professionals. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, public school teachers earned $34.06 per hour in 2005, 36% more than the hourly wage of the average white-collar worker and 11% more than the average professional specialty or technical worker.
I mean it's remarkable how far ahead the US and the rest of much of the western world including Canada are, despite what can only be described as dysfunctional education systems. That said, it is somewhat difficult to measure such things as creative thinking and innovation which our education systems appear to produce in spades - but is this in spite of or because of our school systems? (I recommend reading it all)

Updated - Linked "reading it all".

Posting infrequent...

Unfortunately updating the blog has been rough having a miserable cold, way too much work lately, and unable to even access this site with any degree of speed from China. Usually my net is working well enough only while in Hong Kong and the nature of my work being what it is, I'm not usually out here all that often (though I confess it is a bit of a luxurious treat). In any event, hopefully I will be able to post more and more often soon when I return back to Canada on the 9th. In the meantime, I'll try to take a few more pics and the like of what it's like out here.