Saturday, September 19, 2009

A Peak Oil Hypothesis I Can Agree With

Iain Reid, a senior oil analyst at Macquarie Bank points out that even over time, the threat to oil prices may not be so much the existence/supply of oil (FT Energy) but "but problems of access, technology and risk". He goes on to acknowledge that while policy and limits of existing technology are significant threats, new technology and reformed policies can also create the biggest opportunities.

Personally, I'd also like to hope that embedded in 'wildcard' of technology exists not just the hope but the likelihood of improved energy substitutes like natural gas (the Oil Drum) or even solar (Wired). Which is to basically to say that I don't think we should be so specifically on oil which may be limited in the short and even medium run, but the availability of more broadly energy, which in the long run is in practical terms unlimited and reducing the friction between the different forms.

No comments: