Be Prepared for Long Chinese New Year Factory Closures

Well it would seem that the economic slowdown has finally hit our vendors. What had turned from a steady flow of orders has turned into a trickle and threatens to turn into a full stop.

I've just been advised that a number of our vendors are going to begin the CNY shut down up to 2 weeks early and possibly not reopen until March 1st - and this of course doesn't include the estimated thousands of factories that some believe won't even reopen. While some recommend checking your factories now for closure dates (Quality Wars), I suggest checking weekly until they do as these things are sometimes fluid and often dependent on the order book (having a few mobile phone numbers don't hurt either). Sentiment appears to be quickly shifting to the negative and I'm sure doesn't help that China's only monoline credit insurer Sinosure has also been downgrading US credit risks (via Paul Kedrosky, along with European ones, and everywhere else it would seem).