Best Predictor of Startup Success?

According to Peter Thiel, it's low CEO pay (Tech Crunch):

The lower the CEO salary, the more likely it is to succeed.

The CEO’s salary sets a cap for everyone else. If it is set at a high level, you end up burning a whole lot more money. It aligns his interest with the equity holders. But [beyond that], it goes to whether the mission of the company is to build something new or just collect paychecks.

In practice we have found that if you only ask one question, ask that.

Sounds about right. The tone is set from the top. Everything leaders do (let alone business leaders) sends signals to those below.